Contest Analysis – Margaret River 2016

The WSL marketing phrase leading up the dramatic end-of-year Pipe contest was “You Can’t Script This”. It was pretty apt for the whirlwind that was the 2015 title race, and it worked well for them at the time. They may as well have been describing the beginning of the 2016 season though, as it has gone decidedly off-script compared to seasons past. Maybe, when it comes to the slings and arrows of predicting the men’s tour this year, it would be best to just hand over to living legend and assumed long-time Surf-Stats fan Kelly Slater:

Heats happen and on paper you think there’s a favourite, then when it starts to happen you see guys with nothing to lose realise it more and more… and they can surf from a dominant place. I don’t think there is one guy in this field who underestimates another guy. After seeing what we saw on the Gold Coast and what we’ve seen at this contest, you know, anybody can beat you at any time.

Let’s pack up the wagons and go west, young man. Perhaps we can find redemption where the sun sets over the sea…

Conditions

Analysing the conditions means knowing what the surfers will actually be riding over the next few weeks of the waiting period; will they be dodging the kelp on some knee-high river-mouth shoreys? Or will it be the guys taking off behind the jaws of a Box beast who will prevail? Know the answer to this and you will be part-way to locking in the best team for the Margies conditions.

You can also look at the conditions in a historical sense by looking at each surfer’s success in this event in previous years; if they know how to win here, they obviously suit the event conditions.

The forecast is predicting fairly favourable winds with some 6-8’ waves coming through from the SW/SSW over the first few days. Nothing massive, but “very contestable surf and generally favorable local wind in the mornings”.

Here are our nominations for strong ‘conditions’ surfers for this event:

John John Florence

John John lost last year’s final to Adriano and was easily the form surfer of the event. He has the highest AHS over the past 2 years and the 4^th highest event total average for the same period. JJF missed the 2013 event through injury, but won when it was a QS contest in 2012.

Kelly Slater

Kelly has had a 5^th and a 3^rd in this event over the previous two contests and, as a result, holds the highest average event total of all surfers for this period. He has the 2^nd highest AHS in reef breaks and 8-10’ conditions. Kelly’s form has been low recently, but from a conditions POV, he’s a solid option.

Michel Bourez

The Spartan ranks 3^rd in AHS for the forecast 6-8’ conditions and 2^nd for average event total over the data period. This is off the back of a 5^th place in 2015 and a contest win in 2014. Michel has a solid record at Margies and looks good in this field.

Adriano de Souza

Did you think we were going to leave out last year’s winner? No chance. Adriano has the 2^nd best AHS in 6-8’ conditions, and the 5^th best in 8-10’ waves. He has the 5^th best average total event points, but be wary; his AHS for this event is only 12.78 (8^th). This isn’t a major factor though, as ADS knows how to scrap out a low-scoring heat.

*It’s also worth noting that both ADS and JJF got a solid recommendation from Margaret River local Jack Macaulay in our first ever Notes from the Line-Up article*

Margaret River Pro Results History

year	winner	runner-up	semis (=3rd)	quarters (=5th)	R5 (=9th)
2015	Adriano de Souza	John John Florence	Nat Young Taj Burrow	Jay Davies Michel Bourez Julian Wilson Kelly Slater	Jeremy Flores Sebastian Zietz Owen Wright Josh Kerr
2014	Michel Bourez	Josh Kerr	Bede Durbidge Kelly Slater	Jordy Smith Gabriel Medina Joel Parkinson Nat Young	Miguel Pupo Yadin Nichol Filipe Toledo Adriano de Souza
2013*	Dusty Payne	Josh Kerr	Julian Wilson Ace Buchan	Jonathan Gonzales Jay Thompson Jay Quinn Aritz Aranburu	Kolohe Andino Granger Larsen Dion Atkinson Brian Toth Alejo Muniz Jadson Andre Mitch Coleborn Tom Whitaker
2012*	John John Florence	Olamana Eleogram	Mark Occhilupo Kai Otton	Josh Kerr Tom Whitaker Nic Muscroft CJ Hobgood	Dion Atkinson Owen Wright Freddy Patacchia Jr. Ace Buchan Adam Melling Kolohe Andino Taj Burrow Kieran Perrow
2011*	Damien Hobgood	Yadin Nichol	Granger Larsen Willian Cardoso	Marc Lacomare Jadson Andre Julian Wilson Taj Burrow	Pat Gudauskas Billy Stairmand Mick Fanning Michel Bourez

All results from the previous 5 years' contests

* denotes WQS event

Conditions Warnings

Matt Wilkinson

We warned about Wilko’s poor history at Bells and he won the whole damn thing. If he wins here, don’t say you weren’t warned. Wilko went back-to-back in a different way at Margies over the past 2 years, failing to win a heat. Wilko has the lowest AHS in reef breaks for any of the non-rookie surfers and 3^rd lowest in 6-8’ conditions. We aren’t going to totally rule him out with his great form, but there are some warning signs there…

Matt Banting

Banting dropped a pretty sweet video piece at Surfing Magazine this week. His injury looks fine and he is a genuinely talented surfer. As far as fantasy teams go though, the data doesn’t look great: he ranks lowly in both 6-8’ and 8-10’conditions, moderately low in reef events and 3^rd lowest for the event AHS. Banting has a pretty limited data set as he has only surfed this event once, but his conditions record isn’t amazing.

Form

We now have twice as many events to draw from this season. Unfortunately, nobody but Wilko (and maybe Conner) has shown any domination when it comes to consistent results. Form has been the most elusive element of the 2016 season, but we will try to pick out some trends:

Matt Wilkinson

We considered leaving this out due to its glaringly obvious nature, but Wilko deserves to have his name here. If you want to delve into Wilko’s record-breaking streak after winning Bells, you can check out our Bells wash-up.

Conner Coffin

Conner has not been surfing like a rookie this year; his smooth, stylish rail work and cool contest demeanour have won him a growing number of fans. Main break at Margaret River could really suit his surfing and he has certainly earned our recommendation based on form. It’s 2016 though, so there’s nothing guaranteed.

Jordy Smith

We (stupidly) held out on Jordy (and warned against his form) at Bells in lieu of seeing some passion/results post-injury. Well, he delivered. Bells was his best result since after Portugal 2014, when he went 1^st, 3^rd, and 2^nd in consecutive events. Could this be the old Jordy that we know and love?

Leonardo Fioravanti

While it has not been WSL form, Leo has been a stand-out on the qualifying tour this year. Can he translate that on to the big stage?

Form Warnings

Keanu, Banting, Melling and Ribeiro

These 4 surfers are the only ones to have surfed both 2016 events without a win.

Kelly Slater

Kelly is in a funk right now, he even admits it himself. Slater could easily be the surfer to take this contest by the balls and leave everyone else in his wake, but not until he sorts out his poor form. This year Slater has surfed 5 heats and won only one of them.

Alejo Muniz

Alejo is back on tour after a lengthy injury spell. This doesn’t scream ‘form’ to us.

Heat Draw

While much less important when compared to conditions and form, the balance of the draw should still be a partial consideration in selecting your team. Having 3 surfers in a R1 heat – or even 2 surfers facing off in R2 – is a recipe for low scores. The above draw has been updated to include Leonardo  and Jack, but we are still waiting for the trials winner to be announced.

It should also be noted that, because of the slightly complex WSL system of seeding, the fantasy tiers do not match the surfer’s seeding rank. We personally think that the WSL fantasy game should seed surfers according to their own contest seeding, but that’s out of our hands.

Here are our stand-outs (best chance of a R1 win) for each tier in the WSL game (each surfer has a Fantasy Surfer value for further reference):

WSL Tier A:

Jordy Smith ($7M), Adriano de Souza ($11.75M)

WSL Tier B

Taj Burrow ($5M), Kelly Slater ($6.5M), Josh Kerr ($6M), Julian Wilson ($8.75M)

WSL Tier C

Jack Robinson ($1.5M), Dusty Payne ($1.5M)

(total cost: $48M)

Sleeper Picks

We like to offer a few suggestions that may not be on everyone’s radar. Any success that involves deviating from the popular vote will provide a huge advantage for players willing to take the risk. Since the % owned feature has been removed from the WSL game and the FS numbers are invisible until lock-out, we are simply predicting who will be low in the popularity stakes.

Top

Adriano just doesn’t seem to be getting much love in the fantasy surfing world lately. After only 18% ownership on FS for a mediocre showing at Bells , we expect that to possibly drop even more for event 3.

Mids

There are a LOT of quality surfers in this range, so there will have to be a couple that miss out. We like Kerr at only 15% Bells ownership combined with a quality barrel game at the Box. Flores will also be off the radar here, so he could be an interesting point of difference if you are looking for a dark horse.

Low

Melling could charge a few decent waves and has not been getting much fantasy love, with sub-10% ownership at Bells. Alternatively, Leo will have super low ownership due his last-minute inclusion.

Teams

WSL surf-stats team

We’ve dropped Slater for this contest (and for Rio – you heard it here first). He is definitely worthy in regards to the conditions, but we’ve just been burnt too many times by his poor form. Besides, if he does well, most people will have him anyway so there’s no massive advantage. Slater’s spot has been given to Michel in an attempt to balance experience with form. The Tier C options are pretty awful, but we’re giving Melling one last crack at the big-time.

WSL numbers team

The crazy ranking system that the WSL use to decide their Tiers has messed with out minds (and numbers team selections) for this event. Italo and Stu in Tier A? Pupo and Callinan in Tier C? With all that’s been going down so far this season, why the hell not? At least we’ll have some points of difference…

Fantasy Surfer surf-stats team

We’ve gone for experience at Margies. Even JRob has plenty of hours clocked out here (just not in a contest singlet). If the traditional cream rises to the top, then we’ll be looking good. If the upset-fest continues as it has been, then this could prove to be the worst team possible.

Fantasy Surfer numbers team

There are a few differences between the two FS teams this time, with the numbers team offering Gabe, Seabass, Stu and Conner as alternates to Michel, JRob, Kerr and Taj. At least the variation increases our chances of having ONE decent score at this event. Maybe.

The Outliers

When performing data analysis, you usually assume that your values cluster around some central data point, but sometimes a few of the values fall too far from the central point. These values are called outliers (they lay outside the expected range). Outliers can skew your statistical analyses, leading you to false or misleading conclusions about your data.

For each event in 2016, we will produce a list of ‘outliers’ that represent some kind of anomaly within our selection analyses. Maybe there are factors that a spreadsheet can’t detect, maybe all of the numbers point a god-awful result at this event, or maybe their recent form simply contradicts their previous averages.

Here are our outliers for Margies 2016:

Kelly Slater

Kelly has been on this list twice in a row now. Which Kelly will we see?

Stu Kennedy

Stu’s projections look good, but they are based on a very limited set of sources. Be wary of his numbers.

Rookies

We have very little data on these surfers, so tread carefully with your selections.

Wildcards

Last year Jay Davies surfed very well and wound up with a 5^th place. This year JRob will be on everyone’s radar and Jay could possibly make it in through the trials. Make sure you check the draw before selecting AND remember that these surfers will draw the top seeds in rounds 2 and 3.

Dusty Payne

Dusty looks good in a Tier C that is offering few solid option. It’s easy to forget about his poor projections in the hope of a big result, but we won’t be selecting Dusty just yet.

Surf-stats Clubhouses

Now that you know the team break-downs, it’s time for you to create a team that will hold our selections to account. Sign up to our WSL Surf-Stats group (password – SS) or the Fantasy Surfer Surf-Stats clubhouse (password – SS) and challenge yourself against us and our readers. We will give a shout-out to each winner and analyse their team.

As always, feel free to comment or leave your team selections below.

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