“That’s the best conditions I’ve ever seen” – Kelly Slater consoling Conner Coffin after his re-surf loss to Jordy Smith. Rant *I sincerely apologise for the lateness in publishing this piece; my bastard internet providers have some sort of infrastructure issue and are making me wait a week before sending out a technician. This … Read more
Image: Gabe attempting some mid-heat spray intimidation against Slater in 2015 (Kelly won the quarter-final) Fiji feels like a season ago, no? JBay is a world away from tropical Fiji, a fact which the the stats reflect quite clearly. Let’s don the neoprene, stretch the quads and test our mettle against the wild southern point-break. … Read more
Hey fellow Surf Statisticians, You may have noticed (the 12 of you who read them) that the contest review for Fiji was M.I.A. Yeah, sorry about that. SS is a one-man-show these days, with little other than a love of surfing and a few rad-as-hell donors keeping me going. Which is fine; I wouldn’t be … Read more
Here’s the latest regarding the upcoming JBay Open: Michael February – IN Other than his semi-final against Jordy, Mikey has won everything in South African surfing this year. He comes in hot and he knows the wave well. He’ll most likely draw Jordy again in R1. Caio Ibelli – IN The 2016 ROTY looks to … Read more
Image: our projected Fiji Pro champion threading the south Pacific needle The girls are (nearly) done and dusted and the scene is set for event 5 of the Championship Tour. There’s something exciting about a Fiji contest; it’s guaranteed to throw up at least one talk-of-the-line-up heat each year (remember Taj’s farewell in 2016?). Warm … Read more
Image: Owen Wright on his way to another perfect 10 at the 2015 event All projections and stats are taken from 2014-2017 WSL contest data. Some 2017 rookies include data from previous WSL events, but many do not have relevant results in significant categories, including data for this particular venue. Their modelling is much less … Read more
Rant The purpose of the first few pages in a story is to get the reader hooked. Australia served that purpose well in 2017 with its (mostly) good waves and excellent surfing. Usually the next part of the narrative arc requires some background or character development; a context through which the mounting tension can be … Read more
Image: Connor O’Leary laying down some Saquarema rail in 2015 If there’s a more challenging event to forecast this season, I’ll be amazed. We still have a much-derided Brazilian event this season, yet we have a venue that has been untested on the CT tour. Sure, there are QS stats available, as well as transferable … Read more
Image: Kanoa proving that Saquarema isn’t just a left-hander These projections and stats are taken from 2014-2017 WSL contest data. Some 2017 rookies include data from previous WSL events, but many do not have relevant results in significant categories. Their modelling is much less reliable and they may have skewed projections due to their averages … Read more
The Gold Coast season opener is fast approaching and it’s time to crunch the numbers. This data uses the 2014-2016 results to formulate projections. 2017 rookies include some data from previous WSL events where applicable and some data from the 2016 WQS. This means that they have much less reliable data and have skewed projections … Read more