Sorry for the lack of a Trestles wrap-up; we’ve got some bigger things going on behind the scenes and something had to give. Watch this space though; we’ve got something pretty big on the way…
All of our France projections and stats are taken from 2014-2017 WSL contest data.
Some 2017 rookies include data from previous WSL events, but many do not have relevant results in significant categories, including data for this particular venue. Their modelling is much less reliable and they may have skewed projections due to their averages being heavily influenced by a small sample size.
MOST IMPORTANTLY, don’t rely on our projections alone; we suggest that you check the forecast, sort through the particular conditions data that you deem most relevant and pick out a team that you feel matches.
*Keanu Asing’s stats have been added.
Contest Metrics
Key:Proj AHS = projected average heat score for event, based on our magic algorithm,
AET = average event total (WSL game points) for event,
EAHS = event average heat score,
2017 AHS = 2017 season average heat score,
ALL AHS = career average heat score (using 2014-17 seasons),
Form = AHS from previous 3 WSL events,
1-4' = heat average in waves of 1-4' size,
4-6' = heat average in waves of 4-6' size,
6-8' = heat average in waves of 6-8' size,
Beach = average heat score in conditions offering point break waves,
Lefts/Rights = average heat score in conditions offering left-and-right-hander waves,
Proj Score= total projected score for the event (WSL game) based on our algorithms
NAME | Proj AHS | AET | EAHS | 2017 AHS | ALL AHS | Form | 1-4' | 4-6' | 6-8' | Beach | Left/Right | Proj Score |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
John John Florence | 14.69 | 107.13 | 15.14 | 15.83 | 14.59 | 16.59 | 14.15 | 14.03 | 15.69 | 13.72 | 14.38 | 135.11 |
Gabriel Medina | 14.31 | 111.23 | 14.44 | 13.96 | 13.94 | 15.31 | 14.16 | 14.36 | 14.77 | 14 | 14 | 131.66 |
Mick Fanning | 14.3 | 86.52 | 15.24 | 13.43 | 14.01 | 13.77 | 15.09 | 13.18 | 14.58 | 14.03 | 14.06 | 110.1 |
Joan Duru | 14.29 | 29.67 | 14.84 | 13.02 | 13.93 | 13.53 | 14.06 | 13.6 | 14.9 | 14.44 | 14.57 | 110.01 |
Frederico Morais | 13.85 | 12.93 | 12.98 | 15.42 | 13.33 | 12.88 | 16.89 | 13.18 | 13.41 | 87.27 | ||
Adriano De Souza | 13.69 | 75.75 | 14.4 | 13.88 | 13.1 | 13.24 | 13.56 | 13.43 | 12.98 | 13.98 | 13.78 | 86.27 |
Filipe Toledo | 13.48 | 54.01 | 12.35 | 13.84 | 12.92 | 15.61 | 14.9 | 13.3 | 11.56 | 13.33 | 14.32 | 84.92 |
Owen Wright | 13.46 | 63.03 | 14.01 | 14.13 | 13.28 | 13.51 | 13.59 | 12.74 | 12.98 | 13.58 | 13.41 | 84.82 |
Jordy Smith | 13.33 | 61.87 | 12.44 | 13.95 | 12.85 | 13.8 | 13.89 | 13.1 | 14.24 | 13.11 | 13.81 | 66.64 |
Italo Ferreira | 13.33 | 59.92 | 12.67 | 13.53 | 13.2 | 14.18 | 13.87 | 13.26 | 13.46 | 13.32 | 13.33 | 66.63 |
Julian Wilson | 13.28 | 74.11 | 13.06 | 14.62 | 12.97 | 14.59 | 13.84 | 12.94 | 14.68 | 12.53 | 12.96 | 66.42 |
Ezekiel Lau | 13.25 | 12.19 | 12.19 | 12.75 | 13.96 | 11.97 | 13.85 | 12.93 | 14.32 | 66.24 | ||
Bede Durbidge | 12.83 | 73.17 | 14.33 | 12.81 | 11.35 | 12.59 | 14.52 | 11.56 | 11.51 | 13.29 | 12.19 | 48.76 |
Adrian Buchan | 12.82 | 45.41 | 14.31 | 13.72 | 12.24 | 13.71 | 11.51 | 13.16 | 13.14 | 12.09 | 12.22 | 48.71 |
Conner Coffin | 12.78 | 39.87 | 13.29 | 13.38 | 12.59 | 14.27 | 12.32 | 11.82 | 13.71 | 11.88 | 12.77 | 48.57 |
Kolohe Andino | 12.58 | 84.02 | 13.23 | 12.36 | 12.18 | 12.17 | 12.28 | 13.09 | 12.11 | 12.71 | 12.35 | 47.81 |
Jeremy Flores | 12.5 | 36.96 | 10.46 | 14.34 | 12.79 | 14.72 | 14.01 | 12.75 | 12.9 | 12.03 | 12.66 | 47.49 |
Ian Gouveia | 12.49 | 12.31 | 12.31 | 12.31 | 11.64 | 13.07 | 12.34 | 13.37 | 11.98 | 47.45 | ||
Connor O'Leary | 12.31 | 12.11 | 12.11 | 12.37 | 12.02 | 12.04 | 13.75 | 12.37 | 11.87 | 34.15 | ||
Joel Parkinson | 12.12 | 25.21 | 9.82 | 12.55 | 12.85 | 11.38 | 13.78 | 13.54 | 13.05 | 12.25 | 12.28 | 33.63 |
Nat Young | 12.03 | 30.82 | 10.87 | 12.14 | 12.23 | 11.16 | 12.33 | 11.86 | 13.04 | 12.68 | 12.32 | 33.39 |
Jack Freestone | 11.94 | 31.99 | 10.66 | 11.77 | 12.24 | 12.58 | 12.79 | 11.97 | 11.35 | 11.94 | 12.6 | 33.13 |
Leonardo Fioravanti | 11.91 | 34.3 | 11.43 | 11.97 | 11.82 | 13.72 | 12.8 | 11.49 | 14.1 | 10.49 | 11.61 | 33.05 |
Matt Wilkinson | 11.88 | 51.83 | 11.57 | 12.53 | 11.42 | 12.83 | 12.49 | 11.98 | 11.56 | 11.84 | 11.81 | 32.97 |
Jadson Andre | 11.77 | 56.15 | 11.23 | 11.41 | 11.55 | 13.18 | 12.33 | 12.03 | 10.75 | 11.6 | 11.97 | 21.18 |
Sebastian Zietz | 11.76 | 35.81 | 10.74 | 13.04 | 12.17 | 13 | 12.13 | 11.86 | 12.75 | 11.28 | 11.71 | 21.17 |
Josh Kerr | 11.71 | 43.55 | 10.36 | 10.62 | 11.55 | 11.26 | 13.52 | 11.69 | 11.19 | 12.21 | 12.23 | 21.08 |
Wiggolly Dantas | 11.71 | 19.13 | 9.57 | 12.23 | 11.41 | 12.02 | 13.13 | 11.15 | 12.65 | 12.63 | 12.01 | 21.07 |
Stuart Kennedy | 11.49 | 53.95 | 10.79 | 10.97 | 10.92 | 10.94 | 12.48 | 10.52 | 11.72 | 12.49 | 11.62 | 20.68 |
Caio Ibelli | 11.45 | 41.67 | 11.17 | 11.58 | 11.51 | 10.37 | 12.38 | 11.37 | 13.03 | 11.08 | 11.39 | 20.61 |
Miguel Pupo | 11.33 | 48.56 | 11.6 | 10.76 | 10.98 | 9.64 | 12.35 | 10.8 | 10.42 | 11.97 | 11.63 | 19.26 |
Michel Bourez | 11.29 | 28.8 | 9.96 | 13.46 | 11.88 | 13.64 | 12 | 12.24 | 11.92 | 10.35 | 10.96 | 19.2 |
Kanoa Igarashi | 10.9 | 24.83 | 8.28 | 10.49 | 11.84 | 10.82 | 12.37 | 10.77 | 8.1 | 12.35 | 12.34 | 18.52 |
Keanu Asing | 11.31 | 68.38 | 12.05 | 10.88 | 12.12 | 11.33 | 10.46 | 11.19 | 10.9 | 19.22 | ||
Ethan Ewing | 9.31 | 10.24 | 10.24 | 9.65 | 10.68 | 10.05 | 8.84 | 7.96 | 9.23 | 15.83 |
Fantasy Surfer Data
Key:Value = current price
Prev Value= surfer's price for previous contest
$ Change = difference between two contest values
AVG Pts = average FS points for season
High Pts = best FS points result for season
Proj AHS = projected average heat score for event
Proj Score = estimated FS score for current event
$1000/point = relative value of surfer based on current price vs. projected score
NAME | Value | Prev. Value | $ Change | AVG Pts | High Pts | Proj AHS | Proj Score | $1000/point |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
John John Florence | 11500000 | 11000000 | 500000 | 140 | 250 | 14.69 | 250 | 46.00 |
Gabriel Medina | 10000000 | 10750000 | -750000 | 108 | 175 | 14.31 | 175 | 57.14 |
Mick Fanning | 5000000 | 5250000 | -250000 | 93 | 127 | 14.30 | 151 | 33.11 |
Joan Duru | 5000000 | 5000000 | 0 | 80 | 126 | 14.29 | 150 | 33.33 |
Frederico Morais | 5500000 | 4750000 | 750000 | 95 | 175 | 13.85 | 128 | 42.97 |
Adriano De Souza | 8250000 | 7750000 | 500000 | 122 | 250 | 13.69 | 127 | 64.96 |
Filipe Toledo | 8250000 | 7250000 | 1000000 | 133 | 250 | 13.48 | 126 | 65.48 |
Owen Wright | 8750000 | 9500000 | -750000 | 121 | 250 | 13.46 | 125 | 70.00 |
Jordy Smith | 12500000 | 11750000 | 750000 | 142 | 250 | 13.33 | 103 | 121.36 |
Italo Ferreira | 5000000 | 5000000 | 0 | 95 | 126 | 13.33 | 102 | 49.02 |
Julian Wilson | 10000000 | 10250000 | -250000 | 125 | 250 | 13.28 | 101 | 99.01 |
Ezekiel Lau | 3250000 | 3000000 | 250000 | 71 | 150 | 13.25 | 100 | 32.50 |
Bede Durbidge | 5250000 | 5000000 | 250000 | 85 | 126 | 12.83 | 86 | 61.05 |
Adrian Buchan | 5750000 | 4750000 | 1000000 | 91 | 175 | 12.82 | 85 | 67.65 |
Conner Coffin | 5000000 | 5000000 | 0 | 77 | 103 | 12.78 | 84 | 59.52 |
Kolohe Andino | 7750000 | 8500000 | -750000 | 89 | 175 | 12.58 | 83 | 93.37 |
Jeremy Flores | 5500000 | 5000000 | 500000 | 90 | 126 | 12.50 | 82 | 67.07 |
Ian Gouveia | 3000000 | 3250000 | -250000 | 69 | 101 | 12.49 | 81 | 37.04 |
Connor O'Leary | 5000000 | 5750000 | -750000 | 95 | 175 | 12.31 | 80 | 62.50 |
Joel Parkinson | 7250000 | 8000000 | -750000 | 98 | 150 | 12.12 | 79 | 91.77 |
Nat Young | 1500000 | 1500000 | 0 | 64 | 85 | 12.03 | 78 | 19.23 |
Jack Freestone | 3000000 | 3000000 | 0 | 62 | 150 | 11.94 | 77 | 38.96 |
Leonardo Fioravanti | 3000000 | 3250000 | -250000 | 58 | 127 | 11.91 | 76 | 39.47 |
Matt Wilkinson | 9750000 | 10750000 | -1000000 | 121 | 250 | 11.88 | 75 | 130.00 |
Jadson Andre | 3500000 | 3000000 | 500000 | 64 | 102 | 11.77 | 47 | 74.47 |
Sebastian Zietz | 6000000 | 5750000 | 250000 | 86 | 103 | 11.76 | 46 | 130.43 |
Wiggolly Dantas | 4750000 | 4500000 | 250000 | 77 | 125 | 11.71 | 45 | 105.56 |
Josh Kerr | 3250000 | 3000000 | 250000 | 50 | 82 | 11.71 | 44 | 73.86 |
Stuart Kennedy | 3000000 | 3000000 | 0 | 54 | 102 | 11.49 | 43 | 69.77 |
Jesse Mendes | 1500000 | 1500000 | 0 | 59 | 77 | 11.47 | 42 | 35.71 |
Caio Ibelli | 3500000 | 4250000 | -750000 | 82 | 175 | 11.45 | 41 | 85.37 |
Miguel Pupo | 3250000 | 3000000 | 250000 | 59 | 79 | 11.33 | 40 | 81.25 |
Michel Bourez | 7250000 | 8000000 | -750000 | 84 | 151 | 11.29 | 39 | 185.90 |
Kanoa Igarashi | 4000000 | 3250000 | 750000 | 68 | 125 | 10.90 | 38 | 105.26 |
Ethan Ewing | 3500000 | 3250000 | 250000 | 49 | 80 | 9.31 | 37 | 94.59 |
Surfers' Event History
We have changed our format for this table, now showing the final PLACE that each surfer received for each event. When looking at averages, LOWER is better (closer to 1st place).Key
* = older ASP events with 48 surfers and lowest place of 33rd
Surfer | 2004* | 2005* | 2006* | 2007* | 2008* | 2009* | 2010* | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | Average |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gabriel Medina | 1 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2.67 | |||||||
John John Florence | 25 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 7.00 | |||||||
Kolohe Andino | 5 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 7.00 | ||||||||
Kelly Slater | 3 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 25 | 7.00 |
Keanu Asing | 13 | 1 | 7.00 | |||||||||||
Julian Wilson | 17 | 13 | 2 | 13 | 5 | 13 | 3 | 5 | 8.88 | |||||
Italo Ferreira | 5 | 13 | 9.00 | |||||||||||
Owen Wright | 9 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 5 | 9.00 | ||||||||
Stu Kennedy | 9 | 9.00 | ||||||||||||
Mick Fanning | 33 | 2 | 1 | 33 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 13 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 10.18 | ||
Michel Bourez | 9 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 13 | 25 | 10.20 | |||
Filipe Toledo | 3 | 9 | 25 | 5 | 10.50 | |||||||||
Jordy Smith | 17 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 25 | 10.50 | |||||
Jadson Andre | 9 | 13 | 13 | 2 | 9 | 25 | 11.83 | |||||||
Miguel Pupo | 13 | 5 | 13 | 5 | 25 | 13 | 12.33 | |||||||
Ace Buchan | 17 | 17 | 1 | 33 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12.82 | ||
Conner Coffin | 13 | 13.00 | ||||||||||||
Jack Freestone | 13 | 13.00 | ||||||||||||
Kanoa Igarashi | 13 | 13.00 | ||||||||||||
Leonardo Fioravanti | 13 | 13.00 | ||||||||||||
Sebastian Zietz | 13 | 13 | 25 | 9 | 15.00 | |||||||||
Joel Parkinson | 9 | 1 | 3 | 33 | 33 | 25 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 25 | 25 | 15.64 | ||
Jeremy Flores | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 33 | 13 | 9 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 9 | 25 | 16.33 | |
Caio Ibelli | 25 | 9 | 17.00 | |||||||||||
Adriano de Souza | 17 | 33 | 3 | 33 | 17 | 25 | 25 | 13 | 13 | 3 | 9 | 17.36 | ||
Matt Wilkinson | 17 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 17.57 | ||||||
Bede Durbidge | 33 | 33 | 33 | 17 | 2 | 17 | 13 | 9 | 25 | 25 | 2 | 19.00 | ||
Josh Kerr | 17 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 3 | 13 | 25 | 19.00 | ||||||
Nat Young | 25 | 25 | 13 | 13 | 19.00 | |||||||||
Joan Duru | 33 | 17 | 25 | 25.00 | ||||||||||
Wiggolly Dantas | 25 | 25 | 25.00 |
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