Data and Projections – Margaret River Pro 2017

UPDATED*

* These tables have been changed since Italo’s official withdrawal, with his data having been removed. Nat Young’s data was already in the tables, so it was not added.

Please note also that previous local wildcard surfers Jacob Wilcox, Jay Davies and Jack Robinson have also had their metrics added to allow for any last- minute entries once the trials have been run.

The above two factors have resulted in our tables having models for more than 36 surfers, which is not possible in a WSL contest. Please view the projections accordingly.

We have added the 2017 data to our models, but beware: it’s based on a single, sand-bottom, right-hander point-break. It’s value may not translate well to the Margaret River Pro conditions.

These projections and statistics use the 2014-2017 contest data. 2017 rookies include some data from previous WSL events where applicable and some data from the 2016 WQS. This means that they have much less reliable modelling and have skewed projections due to their averages being heavily influenced by their small sample size. Many also have no previous data that is specific to this event or its conditions.

MOST MPORTANTLY, don’t rely on our projections alone; we suggest that you check the forecast, sort through the particular conditions columns that you deem most relevant and pick out the data that you believe to be of most importance.

Scroll down for overall/WSL data, Fantasy Surfer data, a heat draw and the list of previous winners.

Our full event article will be live soon. Until then, have fun playing with your teams.

 

Margaret River Pro Projections

AET = average event total (WSL game points),
EAHS = event average heat score,
2017 AHS = 2017 season average heat score
AHS = career average heat score (using 2014-17 seasons)
1-4' = heat average in waves of 1-4' size,
4-6' = heat average in waves of 4-6' size,
6-8' = heat average in waves of 6-8' size,
Reefs = average heat score in conditions offering point break waves,
Rights = average heat score in conditions offering right-hander waves,
Lefts = average heat score in conditions offering left-hander waves,
Right/Left = average heat score in conditions offering both right-and-left-hander waves,
PROJ SCORE = total projected score for the event (WSL game)

NAME	Proj AHS	AET	EAHS	2017 AHS	AHS	1-4'	4-6'	6-8'	Reefs	Rights	Lefts	Right / Left	Proj Score
John John Florence	14.8	76.01	16.01	15.37	14.47	14.08	13.82	14.93	14.98	14.72	14.86	14.13	136.16
Mick Fanning	13.99	28.44	12.73	14.14	14.19	15.25	13.21	14.17	13.31	15.19	12.76	14.39	128.70
Kelly Slater	13.94	70.23	13.05	13.46	13.81	13.51	13.64	14.86	14.81	13.66	15.41	13.14	107.33
Gabriel Medina	13.85	59.12	11.4	15.21	14.26	14.25	14.4	14.27	14.32	14.28	14.89	13.84	106.64
Julian Wilson	13.5	86.6	14.49	15.75	13.26	13.89	12.82	14.49	13.2	14.4	12.06	12.52	85.05
Ethan Ewing	13.38			14.32	13.85	14.32				14.32			84.29
Joan Duru	13.32			13.47	14.16	13.47	12.51					14.84	83.91
Joel Parkinson	13.28	75.97	13.22	14.69	13.39	14.23	13.61	13.02	12.77	14.46	12.16	12.33	83.66
Owen Wright	13.09	47.5	11.89	14.39	13.59	13.49	12.3	12.2	13.71	13.74	14.34	12.48	65.45
Adriano De Souza	12.87	72.04	13.29	14.63	13.29	13.53	12.9	12.85	11.94	14	11.4	13.09	64.35
Leonardo Fioravanti	12.86	85.91	13.91	11.89	11.78	13.09	10.98	13.99	13.91	12.49		12.23	64.3
Jeremy Flores	12.83	48.92	13.29	14.58	12.85	13.94	12.3	12.07	12.89	12.94	12.58	12.08	64.15
Jordy Smith	12.72	64.09	12.62	13.08	12.63	13.65	13.07	13.37	11.7	13.79	9.02	13.57	48.33
Ezekiel Lau	12.68			13.34	12.88	13.34				13.34			48.18
Nat Young	12.47	91.3	13.74	11.8	12.14	12.23	11.76	12.99	12.23	12.77	11.33	11.99	47.38
Frederico Morais	12.39			13.44	13.15	13.04	13.27		10.72	13.44	13.27	12.71	47.08
Filipe Toledo	12.35	29.99	11.73	13.44	12.82	14.38	13.53	9.63	10.77	13.98	10.43	14.04	46.93
Sebastian Zietz	12.32	74.37	12.86	14.27	12.48	12.46	11.58	12.38	12	13.15	11.04	11.53	46.81
Jay Davies	12.3	52.57	11.89		12.24		13.17	10.96	12.51	13.51	11.32	12.05	34.13
Adrian Buchan	12.22	45.49	11.28	14.7	12.49	11.62	12.99	12.76	12.23	12.74	12.58	11.41	33.91
Connor O'Leary	12.17			12.14	12.5	12.14				12.14			33.77
Caio Ibelli	12.08	81.14	13.52	13.66	12.2	13.06	11.31	11.52	11.31	12.93	10.03	11.93	33.52
Kolohe Andino	11.94	44.84	10.05	11.02	11.85	12.22	13.24	11.72	11.71	12.02	12.59	12.66	33.13
Wiggolly Dantas	11.94	34.76	13.74	12	11.35	13.05	10.55	11.43	10.26	13.46	10.08	11.37	33.13
Conner Coffin	11.88	23.89	11.95	12.66	12.35	12.13	12.26	12.28	10.74	13.15	9.77	12.04	21.38
Josh Kerr	11.88	66.35	12.05	10.72	11.57	13.06	11.93	11.61	11.54	11.74	11.51	11.86	21.38
Ian Gouveia	11.87			11.42	12.27	11.42				11.42			21.36
Michel Bourez	11.72	75.32	12.75	11.74	11.45	12.04	11.55	11.14	11.2	12.7	10.05	10.77	21.09
Jack Freestone	11.7			12.34	12.43	12.82	11.92		10.16	12.66	9.4	13.01	21.06
Jadson Andre	11.44	23.1	10.7	12.15	11.73	12.15	12.35	10.7	10.61	12.28	11.12	11.55	20.59
Jacob Wilcox	11.35	26.13	14.11		10.14		8.18	13.07	13.07	6.47		13.07	19.29
Kanoa Igarashi	11.27	42.93	14.31	8.39	11.14	10.48	10.55	11.41	10.76	9.98	9.9	11.71	19.15
Matt Wilkinson	11.15	33.75	10	15.04	12.05	12.99	11.84	10.24	9.36	13.26	9.38	11.7	18.95
Stuart Kennedy	11.15	22.47	11.24	12.39	11.63	12.57	10.75	11.89	9.26	12.66	9.77	11.13	18.95
Bede Durbidge	11.15	37.61	10.32	14.09	11.67	14.42	11.5	11	9.59	13.97	9.26	11.46	18.95
Jack Robinson	11.05	24.07	13.29		10.41			12.27	10.41		5.06	12.27	18.78
Miguel Pupo	10.97	43.4	10.32	13.69	11.71	12.55	11.55	9.9	9.54	12.7	9.03	11.36	18.64

 

Margaret River Pro FS

*Please be aware that many surfers' data does not draw on EAHS or Reef break statistics, hence many rookie projections could be considered unreliable.

*N.B. Nat Young's data has been added in case of injury replacement

NAME	$ Value	Proj AHS	Proj Score	$1000/point
John John Florence	12500000	14.8	250	50.00
Mick Fanning	5250000	13.99	175	30.00
Kelly Slater	9500000	13.94	151	62.91
Gabriel Medina	11500000	13.85	150	76.67
Julian Wilson	8000000	13.5	128	62.50
Ethan Ewing	3000000	13.38	127	23.62
Joan Duru	3000000	13.32	126	23.81
Joel Parkinson	8500000	13.28	125	68.00
Owen Wright	8000000	13.09	103	77.67
Adriano De Souza	7750000	12.87	102	75.98
Leonardo Fioravanti	3000000	12.86	101	29.70
Jeremy Flores	3250000	12.83	100	32.50
Jordy Smith	11000000	12.72	86	127.91
Ezekiel Lau	3250000	12.68	85	38.24
Nat Young	1500000	12.47	84	17.86
Frederico Morais	3750000	12.39	83	45.18
Filipe Toledo	7000000	12.35	82	85.37
Sebastian Zietz	7250000	12.32	81	89.51
Jay Davies	1500000	12.3	80	18.75
Adrian Buchan	5750000	12.22	79	72.78
Connor O'Leary	4750000	12.17	78	60.90
Caio Ibelli	5750000	12.08	77	74.68
Kolohe Andino	10000000	11.94	76	131.58
Wiggolly Dantas	4000000	11.94	75	53.33
Conner Coffin	6000000	11.88	47	127.66
Josh Kerr	6250000	11.88	46	135.87
Ian Gouveia	3250000	11.87	45	72.22
Michel Bourez	8500000	11.72	44	193.18
Jack Freestone	3000000	11.7	43	69.77
Jadson Andre	3250000	11.44	42	77.38
Jacob Wilcox	1500000	11.35	41	36.59
Kanoa Igarashi	4000000	11.27	40	100.00
Matt Wilkinson	10750000	11.15	39	275.64
Stuart Kennedy	5000000	11.15	38	131.58
Bede Durbidge	3000000	11.15	37	81.08
Jack Robinson	1500000	11.05	37	40.54
Miguel Pupo	4250000	10.97	37	114.86

 

Margaret River Past Results

Year	Winner	Runner-up	Semis (=3rd)	Quarters (=5th)	R5 (=9th)
2016	Sebastian Zietz	Julian Wilson	Joel Parkinson Italo Ferreira	Nat Young Caio Ibelli Kolohe Andino Leonardo Fioravanti	Matt Wilkinson Jordy Smith Gabriel Medina Adrian Buchan
2015	Adriano de Souza	John John Florence	Taj Burrow Nat Young	Kelly Slater Julian Wilson Michel Bourez Jay davies	Josh Kerr Owen Wright Sebastian Zietz Jeremy Flores
2014	Michel Bourez	Josh Kerr	Kelly Slater Bede Durbidge	Nat Young Joel Parkinson Gabriel Medina Jordy Smith	Adriano de Souza Filipe Toledo Yadin Nichol Miguel Pupo

 

Margaret River Event Placing Averages

Round Placing Points
Final (win) 1st 10
Final (lose) 2nd 8
Semi =3rd 6.5
Quarters =5th 5.2
R5 =9th 4
R3 =13th 1.75
R2 =25th 0.5

*n.b. empty field value denotes injury absence or surfer not on tour

Surfer	2014	2015	2016	Total	Average
Nat Young	5.2	6.5	5.2	16.9	5.63
Michel Bourez	10	5.2	1.75	16.95	5.65
Adriano de Souza	4	10	1.75	15.75	5.25
Sebastian Zietz	1.75	4	10	15.75	5.25
Caio Ibelli			5.2	5.2	5.20
Leonardo Fioravanti			5.2	5.2	5.20
Julian Wilson	1.75	5.2	8	14.95	4.98
Josh Kerr	8	4	1.75	13.75	4.58
Joel Parkinson	5.2	1.75	6.5	13.45	4.48
Kelly Slater	6.5	5.2	0.5	12.2	4.07
John John Florence	1.75	8	1.75	11.5	3.83
Jordy Smith	5.2	1.75	4	10.95	3.65
Bede Durbidge	6.5	0.5		7	3.50
Gabriel Medina	5.2	0.5	4	9.7	3.23
Owen Wright	1.75	4		5.75	2.88
Jay Davies		5.2	0.5	5.7	2.85
Miguel Pupo	4	1.75	1.75	7.5	2.50
Ace Buchan	1.75	1.75	4	7.5	2.50
Kolohe Andino	1.75	0.5	5.2	7.45	2.48
Filipe Toledo	4	0.5		4.5	2.25
Jeremy Flores	0.5	4	1.75	6.25	2.08
Jadson Andre	1.75	1.75		3.5	1.75
Mick Fanning	1.75	1.75		3.5	1.75
Matt Wilkinson	0.5	0.5	4	5	1.67
Wiggolly Dantas		0.5	1.75	2.25	1.13
Alejo Muniz	0.5	0.5	1.75	2.75	0.92