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Top Picks – 2015 Men’s CT Bells Beach

Here we are, just two weeks from the 2015 Bells Beach CT and the Men’s Heat Draw has dropped!

Maximizing your R1 Bye potential will give you a huge edge in CT #2 this year.  Those mind-blowing upsets at the Gold Coast stirred the rankings beautifully for drafting solid quality at Bells.  Like fish in a barrel – don’t you just love CT #2?

2015 Men's CT Bells Beach Projections

Projected Average Heat Scores (PAHS), Projected Fantasy Points (PFP) and QSFW Power Score at Bells Beach for each Surfer from 2011-2014. Table is sortable, enjoy!
Mick Fanning15.14115.1367
Joel Parkinson15.32112.9463
Nat Young14.11101.117
John John Florence14.9199.123
Filipe Toledo15.0396.472
Julian Wilson11.5794.893
Taj Burrow14.0991.0246
Kelly Slater15.5589.2156
Adriano de Souza13.8488.4935
Jordy Smith14.5687.4014
Gabriel Medina12.4566.720
Josh Kerr13.0662.461
Jeremy Flores12.7461.113
Bede Durbidge13.4259.059
Miguel Pupo11.557.990
C.J. Hobgood12.8656.491
Sebastian Ziets14.0752.520
Kolohe Andino13.7346.830
Owen Wright12.5946.263
Adam Melling10.9540.440
Fredrick Patacchia12.6239.433
Adrian Buchan12.2739.270
Wiggolly Dantas14.938.310
Dusty Payne11.8737.510
Matt Banting10.2436.400
Italo Ferreira12.534.330
Michel Bourez12.4633.760
Matt Wilkinson10.8331.170
Glenn Hall11.9429.610
Kai Otton11.7728.723
Brett Simpson10.7827.510
Jadson Andre11.5926.231
Keanu Asing924.630
Ricardo Christie12.524.310

Tier A

Thanks to standings after one competition, we have guys like Miguel Pupo, Wiggolly Dantas, and Bede Durbidge in Tier A (no disrespect).  If you jump on the Brazil Bandwagon (and who could blame you), you are going to lose at Bells.

Taj Burrow and Wiggolly Dantas face off in R1 – don’t pick either of them.  Someone is surfing R2 and with all the upsets these days, they chance an early end to their event.  You don’t want to risk any of your Tier A guys dropping out in R2.

Miguel Pupo is a no-go, he’s up against a (cough) Tier B (cough) Joel Parkinson.

Tier A PICKS:  Mick Fanning and Adriano de Souza

Mick Fanning – He survived the Brazilian Tornado in CT #1 and his track record at Bells is undeniable.  We’re projecting his average heat score at 15.14 for 115.13 fantasy points.  He has a 67 (!) QSFW here.  Besides that, he should be able to take a direct flight to R3 facing off against a very angry Freddy P. and a WC in R1.  Even if the masses are onto this one, go with them – easy pick.

Adriano de Souza – Adriano is no trendy #BrazilPick, he’s got a quality 35  QSFW at Bells and we’re projecting him into the SF for 88.49 PFP.  He’ll have no trouble cruising into R3 after facing two Tier C surfers in R1.

Both these guys should go very deep into the event and one of them could easily win Bells this year.  If they do face each other in an elimination round, it shouldn’t be until the SF and that would clearly be a win.

We like Julian Wilson in Tier A also, but he’s got tougher R1 competition in Kolohe Andino and a red-hot Matt Wilkinson.  Julian is no guarantee for a R1 win, and we don’t want to watch him in the elimination octagon.

Tier B

Have a look at this Tier B!  Really let this one soak in, because you’ll never have this talent buffet for such a value again.

Lock In:  Jordy Smith, Joel Parkinson

Jordy Smith and Joel Parkinson both deserve better than Tier B, but after a one-event judgement, you can have them both and Mick Fanning – what a day !

Jordy is up against Adrian Buchan and rookie Keanu Asing, both in Tier C.  He’ll be in R3 one way or another.  We think he’ll do much better than that though, with a PAHS of 14.56 for 87.4 PFP into the QF.  He’s got a pretty good QSFW for a Tier B guy at 14, but not as good as…

Joel Parkinson.  63 (!) QSFW, 15.32 PAHS, 112.94 PFP.  If he doesn’t win Bells, he’s taking 2-4th.  With his low seed, look for Parko to 2xBye his way to the QF.  What a crazy Tier B.  Put it in the books.

Up for Debate: Kelly Slater, John John Florence, Nat Young, Italo Ferreira

Kelly or John John?  You could pick both, but most people will have them.  To separate yourself from the pack you need to diversify with a value pick.  We’re suggesting John John Florence over Slater because frankly, Kelly hasn’t shown consistency in the last year.  He got busted by Italo Ferreira in R2 last event and hasn’t had a presence at Bells since a 2nd place finish in 2011.  We’re projecting a high AHS for Kelly at 15.55, but as the oldest guy on tour, he’s likely an outlier at this point.  Slater’s done so much scoring over his career that his numbers are going to look higher than what his current performance reflects – let’s face it, he’s in the decline of his career (but holding on better than anyone else ever will).

So we recommend Florence.  You can still pick just Kelly, or you can still pick both, but picking both won’t leave you room for:

Nat Young – 14.11 PAHS, 101.11 PFP, and in his young career a 7 QSFW.  Why does Nat perform so well at Bells?  Who cares – he does; he has a 14.68 AHS for Australian events in general.  Backhand has never been an issue for him, owning a 13.49 AHS going right for a -.91 RLD.  In his two seasons on the CT Nat’s got a 13.99 LAHS and a 5.5 REA.  You’ll be in the minority ownership of Nat Young who we project will outscore both Kelly and John John.  He’s a big time sleeper with a huge upside, get on it.

Tier C

Hard to find guys in Tier C that aren’t up against one of your Tier A or Tier B surfers in R1, so we have to make due.  One choice is clear: Kai Otton

Yeah, he’s up against Adriano de Souza, but you’re looking for a guy in Tier C that can get to R3 and has a shot at R4.  As one of the highest seeds of the Tier C squad (20), he’ll face a less deadly opponent in R2.  That’s an important way to start thinking if you’re going to win (see how we help you here at Surf-Stats!)  Kai’s got a career QSFW of 3 at Bells and though we’re only projecting 28.72 TFP through a R3 elimination, the upside is that he gets into R4 and that is a payoff.

Up for Debate: Adrian Buchan, Jeremy Flores, Adam Melling

No one in Tier C has it easy in R1, so we’ll have to minimize our risk here.  Jadson Andre and Michel Bourez make honorable mention at best, but we’re going with Adrian Buchan.  Seeded at 18, even if Ace finds himself in R2 (and after facing our Jordy Smith in R1, let’s hope he does) he’ll be surfing against easier competition.  We have Adam Melling projected a few points higher, but that’s because we expect them both to be out by R3 – Buchan gives you a better chance at R4 and that’s all we’re looking for in a Tier C pick.  R4 = R5, ya dig?

Jeremy Flores?  Make your own call, he’s projected for a pretty solid score, especially in the bargain bin tier, but he’s almost guaranteed to find himself in R2 and at 31st seed, he’ll quickly find his way to the exit door.

We’d love your feedback! Contact us!

Stay Tuned for Women’s Projections or CLICK HERE to view their projection table!  We’ll update when their Heat Draw is released.

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